Super Tuesday is now officially behind us, and California has several weeks of vote counting ahead of us. We want to provide you the early results (as of March 4, noon PT) and analysis of key races across the state and up and down the ballot. Keep in mind that (1) primary election voters skew older, whiter and more conservative than general election voters and (2) results may change several percentage points from now as more progressive votes come in until the results are final (April 3). Candidates noted with a * are endorsed or supported by CDT, and candidates noted with a ** are endorsed by our partner regional tables. We will continue to provide weekly updates until through the final results. Please contact staff if you have any further questions.
It’s too early to know the voter turnout numbers, but you can track the mail-in ballots returned daily with Political Data, Inc.’s 2020 primary election tracker. As of yesterday, of the over 16 million ballots mailed, 27% had been returned. Mail-in ballots will be coming in through Friday. Note that Republicans returned ballots at a higher rate (36% vs. 27% for Democrats), likely due in part to Democrats holding onto their ballots as the Democratic presidential nomination played out.
Los Angeles voters experienced several problems with the new electronic ballot system at the 978 county voting centers. Some voters were still casting ballots around midnight.
The Public Policy Institute of California published a set of data, tables and maps showing the partisan shift from Republican to Democrat that has been happening in the state, especially in the central and southern coast and inland regions, where CDT has been investing in for over 15 years.
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
Joseph R. Biden – 24.9%
Michael R. Bloomberg (no longer running) – 14.3%
Peter Buttigieg (no longer running) – 6.3%
Bernie Sanders – 33.6%
Elizabeth Warren – 12.0%
This list only includes candidates who have won at least 5% of the vote. Fifteen other candidates have between 0.0%-3.1% of the vote.
Democratic presidential candidates are following the lead of California in offering immigration reform plans that echo some of our sanctuary state policies. Another example of why California has to continue to lead on a progressive agenda to shape the nation.
In another demonstration of how California’s early primary election brought new attention to CDT’s priority regions, the Guardian profiles how Sanders’ campaign has organized alongside Latinx community members and activists in the Inland Empire around the environmental impacts of Amazon in the region. CDT partner Inland Empire United organizes these communities year-round across issues.
All four Central Valley congressional races below are top priority races for CDT partner Communities for a New California.
Congressional District 10
Michael J. “Mike” Barkley (D) – 3.1%
Ryan Blevins (D) – 2.0%
Josh Harder (D – Incumbent) – 39.8%
Bob Elliott (R) – 14.2%
Ted Howze (R) – 37.5%
Marla Sousa Livengood (R) – 3.4%
Congressional District 16
Jim Costa (D – Incumbent) – 37.5%
Esmeralda Soria (D) – 18.4%
Kimberly Elizabeth Williams (D) – 5.6%
Kevin Cookingham (R) – 38.5%
Congressional District 21
TJ Cox (D – Incumbent) – 36.1%
Ricardo De La Fuente (D) – 8.3%
Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente (R) – 2.5%
David G. Valadao (R) – 53.1%
TJ Cox is considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats as he seeks re-election against Republican David Valadao, who held this seat from 2012-2018 before he was defeated by Cox. In 2018, Cox lost the primary to Valadao, 37% to 63%, then won the general 51% to 49%, a 27-point swing. The race wasn’t called until Thanksgiving.
Congressional District 22
Phil Arballo (D) – 23.5%
Bobby Bliatout (D) – 11.5%
Dary Rezvani (D) – 2.9%
Devin G. Nunes (R-Incumbent) – 59.4%
Eric Garcia (NPP) – 2.6%
Congressional District 25 (Los Angeles)
Christy Smith (D) – 29.8%
Cenk Uygur (D) – 5.2%
Mike Garcia (R) – 25.5%
Steve Knight (R) – 20.1%
This list only includes candidates who have won at least 5% of the vote. Nine other candidates have between 0.6%-4.3% of the vote. CDT and Voices for Progress endorsed Christy in 2018 in her successful run for state assembly in AD38. Steve Knight is seeking to reclaim this seat that he lost in 2018 to Katie Hill.
All three Orange County congressional races below are top priority Democratic protects for CDT partner Orange County Civic Engagement Table Action (OCCETA).
Congressional District 39 (Orange County)
Gil Cisneros (D-Incumbent) – 44.3%
Young Kim (R) – 50.8%
Steve Cox (NPP) – 4.9%
Young Kim is seeking to reclaim this seat that she lost to Cisneros in 2018.
Congressional District 45
Katie Porter (D-Incumbent) – 48.1%
Peggy Huang (R) – 11.3%
Greg Raths (R) – 18.9%
Don Sedgwick (R) – 13.9%
This list only includes candidates who have won at least 5% of the vote. Three other candidates have between 1.1%-4.2% of the vote.
Congressional District 48
Harley Rouda (D-Incumbent) – 43.7%
Brian Burley (R) – 12.8%
Michelle Steel (R) – 36.7%
This list only includes candidates who have won at least 5% of the vote. Three other candidates have between 1.4%-2.7% of the vote.
Congressional District 49 (which also includes a small portion of Orange County)
Mike Levin (D-Incumbent) – 52.8%
Brian Maryott (R) – 47.2%
Congressional District 50
Maria Calderon (D) – 5.1%
Ammar Campa-Najjar* (D) – 34.4%
Carl DeMaio (R) – 21.0%
Darrell Issa (R) – 24.9%
Brian W. Jones (R) – 10.8%
This list only includes candidates who have won at least 5% of the vote. Five other candidates have between 0.7%-2.0% of the vote. CDT supported Ammar when he narrowly lost this seat to then-Republican incumbent Duncan Hunter in 2018. We are supporting him again in 2020, and his candidacy is a priority for CDT partners Engage San Diego Action Fund and Alliance San Diego Mobilization Fund.
Congressional District 53
Janessa Goldbeck (D) – 7.4%
Georgette Gómez (D) – 18.6%
Sarah Jacobs (D) – 29.6%
Michael Patrick Oristian (R) – 9.1%
Famela Ramos (R) – 8.1%
Chris Stoddard (R) – 14.0%
This list only includes candidates who have won at least 5% of the vote. Nine other candidates have between 0.4%-3.4% of the vote. This district is currently represented by Democrat Susan Davis, who is retiring from this seat.
STATE LEGISLATIVE RACES
Over $19 million was spent via independent expenditures — from corporate interests, labor and donors — to influence state legislative races. “Together, oil and gas producers, Realtors and car dealers are responsible for nearly half of all outside spending.” Three of our five endorsed candidates were impacted as some of the top races in which IE money was spent: Susan Eggman in SD5 (against her and in support of moderate Democrat Mani Grewal), Dave Cortese in SD15 (in support of him and both in support of and against moderate Democrat and former assemblymember Nora Campos) and DeniAntionette Mazingo in AD42 (in support of former Republican, now NPP Chad Mayes).
Senate District 5 (Central Valley)
Susan Talamantes Eggman* (D – incumbent) – 31.4%
Mani Grewal (D) – 17.9%
Jesús Andrade (R) – 16.7%
Kathleen A. Garcia (R) – 6.1%
Jim Ridenour (R) – 27.9%
Assemblymember Susan Talamantes Eggman is running to replace moderate Democrat Cathleen Galgiani, who is terming out and endorsed corporate-backed, homophobic Democrat Mani Grewal. Ideally, Susan will make it through the primary and face a Republican, a match-up that will favor her.
Senate District 7 (Contra Costa)
Steve Glazer (D – Incumbent) – 48.2%
Marisol Rubio** (D) – 21.1%
Julie Mobley (R) – 30.7%
CDT partner Lift Up Contra Costa Action endorsed Marisol Rubio as the progressive challenger to Senator Steve Glazer, the most moderate of Senate Democrats and who is closely aligned with several industries. Rumor has it that Glazer recruited Republican Julie Mobley to push Marisol out of the general election.
Senate District 13 (Silicon Valley)
Josh Becker (D) – 20.4%
Michael Brownrigg (D) – 11.8%
Sally J. Lieber (D) – 16.0%
Shelly Masur (D) – 15.3%
Annie Oliva (D) – 12.9%
Alexander Glew (R) – 21.2%
John H. Webster (LIB) – 2.4%
This is a closely watched race to replace Democrat Jerry Hill, who is terming out and endorsed Josh Becker — who has ties to wealthy tech donors — for this seat. Sally Lieber served as a state assemblymember in an overlapping district and is being opposed by several industry interests for her progressive record. Shelly Masur is backed by a coalition of the California Federation of Teachers, California Medical Association and the California Teachers Association. Real estate interests are supporting Annie Oliva.
Senate District 15 (Silicon Valley)
Nora Campos (D) – 16.7%
Dave Cortese* (D) – 33.0%
Ann Ravel (D) – 19.8%
Ken Del Valle (R) – 7.2%
Robert Howell (R) – 12.1%
Tim Gildersleeve (NPP) – 0.7%
Johnny Khamis (NPP) – 10.5%
This is another closely watched race to replace Democrat Jim Beall, who is terming out. CDT and Voices for Progress endorsed Dave Cortese for this seat. Nora Campos was a moderate assemblymember, and oil and other industries are trying to get her through the primary, which would make this a very expensive general election race.
Senate District 23 (Inland Empire)
Kris Goodfellow (D) – 17.0%
Abigail Medina* (D) – 26.3%
Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh (R) – 25.1%
Cristina Puraci (R) – 8.4%
Lloyd White (R) – 23.2%
CDT and Voices for Progress have endorsed Abigail Medina as she seeks to flip this seat from Republican to Democrat. We endorsed her in 2016 when she narrowly lost an assembly race (challenging a Republican incumbent) that makes up half of this senate district. CDT partner Inland Empire United (IE United) is also leading an independent expenditure in support of Abigail, and per director Michael Gomez Daly, voters have responded positively to her candidacy. Kris Goodfellow’s campaign — despite strong early support from some Democratic leaders — may have been affected by CA NOW’s recent exposure of her homophobic smears of Abigail.
Senate District 28 (Inland Empire)
Anna Nevenic (D) – 2.9%
Elizabeth Romero (D) – 21.7%
Joy Silver (D) – 20.6%
Melissa Melendez (R) – 41.5%
John Schwab (R) – 13.4%
This is a special election for Republican Jeff Stone’s seat after he was appointed to the federal Department of Labor. This race is a top priority for IE United.
Senate District 29 (Orange County)
Joseph Cho (D) – 18.0%
Josh Newman (D) – 32.7%
Ling Ling Chang (R – Incumbent) – 49.3%
Democrat Josh Newman is looking to reclaim this seat from Republican incumbent Ling Ling Chang. Newman defeated her in 2016 for this seat, but then was recalled in 2018 for his vote in support of the gas tax, and Chang re-took the seat in a special election that year.
Assembly District 9 (Sacramento)
Jim Cooper (D – Incumbent) – 41.8%
Tracie Stafford (D) – 20.0%
Mushtaq A. Tahirkheli (D) – 2.8%
Eric M. Rigard (R) – 35.4%
Tracie Stafford is challenging incumbent Jim Cooper, one of the most powerful moderate Democrats in the Assembly. He was recently one of the co-leaders of the informal moderate caucus. CDT partner Smart Justice California has endorsed Tracie in this race.
Assembly District 36 (Los Angeles)
Johnathon Ervin* – 7.2%
Steve Fox – 15.9%
Diedra M. Greenaway – 5.6%
Tom Lackey (R – Incumbent) – 56.6%
This list only includes candidates who have won at least 5% of the vote. Four other candidates have between 2.5%-4.6% of the vote. CDT and Voices for Progress endorsed Johnathon Ervin to flip this seat. Steve Fox is a former Democratic assemblymember with a history of sexual misconduct. The Association of Realtors contributed to an independent expenditure for Fox, likely to ensure an easier race for Republican incumbent Tom Lackey.
Assembly District 42 (Inland Empire/Central Valley)
DeniAntionette Mazingo* (D) – 29.5%
Andrew F. Kotyuk (R) – 34.7%
Chad Mayes (NPP – Incumbent) – 35.8%
CDT and Voices for Progress endorsed Deni Mazingo to flip this seat to Democratic. She previously had won the primary for this seat when she challenged then-Republican incumbent Chad Mayes in 2018. This results of this race will tighten as ballots are counted.
The oil industry — having now invested deeply in state legislative races since the top-two primary went into effect — is increasingly investing in local races, including Board of Supervisor races, to oppose environmental candidates and bolster their industry.
Fresno Mayor – Nonpartisan (Central Valley)
Jerry Dyer – 54.48%
Andrew Janz – 36.15%
This list only includes candidates who have won at least 5% of the vote. Five other candidates have between 0.58%-2.58% of the vote. CDT partner Communities for a New California is prioritizing this race, supporting Andrew Janz (who ran as a Democrat and came within 5 points of defeating Republican incumbent Devin Nunes in Congressional District 22 in 2018) to defeat Jerry Dyer, a conservative former police chief.
Los Angeles District Attorney – Nonpartisan
Jackie Lacey (Incumbent) – 50.69%
George Gascón* – 26.83%
Rachel Rossi – 22.47%
CDT has endorsed George Gascón as he challenges conservative incumbent Jackie Lacey, whose husband recently pulled a gun on Black Lives Matters activists as they tried to meet with Lacey at her house (she has refused to meet with them for several years). Gascón is a top priority for the criminal justice reform movement, and at a time when progressive prosecutors — like CDT-endorsed San Francisco District Attorney and St. Louis’ Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner (the city’s first Black female prosecutor) — are facing deep opposition from law enforcement. CDT’s goal is to prevent Lacey from securing more than 50% of the final vote to force a run-off in the general election, which will be possible with the independent expenditure led by CDT partner LA Voice Action and supported by several CDT donors.
Los Angeles Board of Supervisors, District 2 – Nonpartisan
Herb J. Wesson Jr. – 32.09%
Holly J. Mitchell* – 25.51%
Jan C. Perry – 12.26%
Albert Robles – 11.38%
Jorge Nuño – 6.64%
Jake Jeong – 6.54%
René Lorenzo Rigard – 5.58%
CDT endorsed Senator Holly Mitchell for this seat and several CDT donors have supported an independent expenditure on her behalf and led by LA Voice Action as she faces LA City Council President Herb Wesson.
San Diego Mayor – Nonpartisan
Todd Gloria** – 40.23%
Scott Sherman – 25.17%
Barbara Bry – 23.61%
Tasha Williamson – 5.73%
Gita Appelbaum Singh – 2.98%
Rich Riel – 2.28%
CDT partner Engage San Diego Action Fund endorsed Todd Gloria in this race to replace a termed out Republican with a progressive Democrat.